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src="http://www.birdaytrip.com/data/images/other/20190524111914_604.jpg" alt=""></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="page-wrap-right"> <div class="xypg-right-content">  <div class="xypg-news-detail"> <h1 class="xypg-detail-title">未來燃料油市場新變化</h1> <div class="xypg-detail-info-bar"> <div class="detail-info-time"><i class="iconfont icon-shijian"></i>2020-11-12</div> <div class="detail-info-numbers"><i class="iconfont icon-chakan"></i><script src="http://www.birdaytrip.com/data/include/newshits.php?id=444"></script>次</div> </div> <div class="xypg-detail-con"><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei";">在今年新冠肺炎疫情和油價暴跌的背景下，燃料油合約不出意外跌出新水平。4月底以來，燃料油價格跟隨油價一路回升，市場情緒濃厚。從基本面來看，供應方面，自3月以來，西半球至東半球的套利窗口關閉，4月來自西半球的套利船貨從3月的350-400萬噸下降至300-350萬噸左右。盡管東西半球套利活動受阻，新加坡與國內的內外盤套利卻十分活躍。由于前期油價暴跌，陸上庫存告急，浮倉囤油需求的增加導致運費飆升，推升了內外盤（FU與新加坡紙貨掉期）價差，使得內外盤套利者紛紛入場，4月份至今，燃料油倉單注冊量大幅增加，截至5月26日，當前倉單量已達454040噸。</span></p><p style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei";"><img src="/data/upload/image/20201112/1605164677110679.jpg" title="燃料油生產廠家" alt="燃料油生產廠家" width="750" height="346" border="0" vspace="0" style="width: 750px; height: 346px;"/></span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei";">近期運費雖然已經回落至暴漲前的正常水平，但是按照國內燃料油到港成本公式：（（新加坡FOB價+12）*美元兌人民幣匯率+15.5，“12”代表運費，“15.5”代表港雜費）來計算，當前內外盤價差仍然很大。截至5月26日，新加坡現貨對FU2009的基差仍有-200元/噸左右的水平，這說明盡管運費大幅回落使得內外盤價差收窄，但是進口依然有利可圖，那么預計未來倉單量很有可能會進一步增加。據了解，受到高進口利潤的吸引，近期陸續還有10多萬噸倉單將注冊。此外，在當前庫容已經很緊張的情況下，不排除后續交易所繼續提升倉儲費的可能。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei";">求方面，自IMO2020正式實施以來，高硫燃料油作為船燃需求量大減。根據新加坡海事港務局公布的數據顯示，2020年1月至4月，新加坡港口船用油銷量總計1365萬噸，其中，LSFO 380CST的銷量為819.21萬噸，占比達到60%；MFO380CST的銷量為250萬噸，占比僅為18%。而此前新加坡船用油銷量基本以MFO 380CST為主，IMO2020使得高硫船燃的份額下降超過80%。根據舟山港的數據顯示，今年一季度舟山保稅油供應量為99.31萬噸，按照新加坡高硫船燃下降比例類推，每個月國內高硫船燃的需求量將僅為4-5萬噸左右。國內不像中東地區利用高硫燃料油發電；并且，目前燃料油的倉單大都是調和出來的，不是直餾油，時間長了會出現分層，煉廠難以接貨進行二次加工。那么問題來了，如果僅僅靠微薄的船燃需求，屆時國內大量的倉單將很難消化，這將對FU2009合約造成不小的壓力。</span></p><p><br/></p></div> <div class="xypg-detail-tags"> <div class="tags-title"> <h3>標簽</h3> <div class="baidu-share">  <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"> <a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_sqq" data-cmd="sqq" title="分享到QQ好友"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_isohu" data-cmd="isohu" title="分享到我的搜狐"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到騰訊微博"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_fbook" data-cmd="fbook" title="分享到Facebook"></a> </div> 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