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src="http://www.birdaytrip.com/data/images/other/20190524111914_604.jpg" alt=""></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="page-wrap-right"> <div class="xypg-right-content">  <div class="xypg-news-detail"> <h1 class="xypg-detail-title">燃料油未來多空分歧較大，等待進一步確認</h1> <div class="xypg-detail-info-bar"> <div class="detail-info-time"><i class="iconfont icon-shijian"></i>2020-11-12</div> <div class="detail-info-numbers"><i class="iconfont icon-chakan"></i><script src="http://www.birdaytrip.com/data/include/newshits.php?id=438"></script>次</div> </div> <div class="xypg-detail-con"><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;">近期燃料油期貨不斷增倉下行反映多空分歧巨大的現實。2020年IMO導致高硫380燃料油需求斷崖式下滑，新加坡3月高硫380燃料油銷量65.3萬噸，同比去年同期下降78％，高硫份額大部分被低硫取代，但隨著2019年年底380燃料油裂解價差觸底，供應下降預期以及煉廠加工需求成為高硫380燃料油新驅動。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;">對于燃料油期貨空頭，持倉過大是不利因素?，F有倉單超過40萬噸，疊加2009新倉單注冊，倉單量可能會在100萬—200萬噸，當下燃料油核定庫容121.7萬噸，未來如果交割庫不擴容，倉單有效期不縮短（倉單有效期長2年），如此高的持倉（超過80萬手，800萬噸）如果一直存續，對空頭來說是有一定壓力的。不過，臨近交割該持倉大概率是要下降的。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;"><img src="/data/upload/image/20201112/1605144999157994.jpg" title="燃料油生產" alt="燃料油生產" width="750" height="500" border="0" vspace="0" style="width: 750px; height: 500px;"/></span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;">對于燃料油期貨多頭，倉單的消化是不利因素。按新加坡高硫380燃料油需求同比下降78％來計算，舟山2019年燃料油銷量400萬噸（按大部分高硫380燃料油假設），2020年舟山高硫380燃料油需求是88萬噸，那么，如果僅依靠船舶加注100萬噸倉單要消化超過一年時間，多頭可能要尋找380燃料油其他的需求出路。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;">對空頭來說，近期原油庫容不斷增加，倉儲費由0.2元/噸/天提升至0.4元/噸/天，未來有概率看到燃料油交割庫的批復（但考慮到高低硫轉換結束，低硫燃油是主流用油，380燃料油需求少沒必要占用太多交割庫容）。一方面倉儲費有可能提升；另一方面，倉單有效期有可能會縮短（現在的燃料油倉單有效期過長，利于多頭占用庫容利用燃料油期貨結構賺取月差），通過提高倉儲費、縮短倉單有效期改變市場結構能夠減少多頭對庫存資源的占用，更好地服務實體企業，但國內的月差結構與新加坡基本一致，并沒有因資金導致結構扭曲。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;">對多頭來說，倉單有效期不縮短，倉儲費不提高，多頭可以在有效期內不停的買近拋遠，不需要考慮倉單終的消化問題。近期原油趨穩，2019年四季度美國、印度開始采購高硫燃料油作為煉廠進料，且2001合約部分倉單，煉廠通過倉單注銷報關進口作為了浙江某煉廠的加工原料，但在低油價背景下，高硫380燃料油的加工經濟性較差，未來若原油大漲，主營煉廠供應低硫燃油，外放渣油大降，市場能用于深加工的渣油資源較少的話，不排除煉廠對380燃料油的進料需求大增。</span></p><p><br/></p></div> <div class="xypg-detail-tags"> <div class="tags-title"> <h3>標簽</h3> <div class="baidu-share">  <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"> <a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_sqq" data-cmd="sqq" title="分享到QQ好友"></a> 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